초록 열기/닫기 버튼
2011년 이후 모든 상장기업에 대해 K-IFRS가 의무적용됨에 따라 연결재무제표 중심의 공시체제로 회계환경이 변화되었음에도 불구하고 회계정보 제공자 및 이용자들이 연결재무제표에 대해 이해하고 있는지에 대한 실증연구는 미미한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 재무분석가가 연결실체에 대한 예측치를 합리적으로 산정하는지를 이익지속성 평가능력에 초점을 맞추어 분석한다. 2011년부터 2013년까지의 기간 동안 연결대상 종속회사가 있는 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업에 대해 재무분석가가 발표한 연결영업이익 예측치를 대상으로 실증분석한 결과, 재무분석가는 연결이익의 지속성을 과대평가하며, 특히, 연결실체 내 지배회사 이익의 지속성을 과대평가하여 연결영업이익 예측치를 산정하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 연결실체뿐만 아니라 지배회사 개별실체까지 예측범위를 확대한 재무분석가의 경우 연결실체의 이익만 예측하는 재무분석가에 비해 지배회사 이익의 지속성에 대한 과대평가 오류가 감소하며, 그 결과 연결이익의 지속성에 대한 과대평가의 정도가 감소하지만 그럼에도 불구하고 연결이익 및 지배회사 이익의 지속성에 대한 낙관적 평가오류는 여전히 관찰되었다. 이러한 결과는 재무분석가가 연결이익을 예측함에 있어 기업이 보고한 연결정보를 효율적으로 이용하지 못하고 있으며, 재무분석가가 제공하는 예측정보의 범위에 따라 예측 비효율성의 정도가 상이하게 나타남을 의미한다. 본 연구는 회계정보의 주요 이용자 중의 하나인 재무분석가가 연결실체를 잘 이해하고 연결이익을 예측하는지에 대한 실증결과를 제시하였다는데 그 공헌점이 있다. 특히, 일반 투자자에 비해 높은 분석력과 많은 정보를 보유하고 있는 것으로 평가받는 재무분석가가 연결실체 내 구성회사별 이익지속성을 정확히 평가하지 못한다는 것은 연결기준 공시의 질적 수준이 더 향상될 필요가 있음을 시사한다.
This study investigates financial analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts under Korean International Financial Reporting Standards (K-IFRS). Specifically, we examine whether financial analysts forecast consolidated earnings based on unbiased estimates of the persistence of parent and subsidiary earnings. We also analyze financial analysts’ incentives to provide consolidated earnings forecasts with supplementary separate earnings forecasts for the parent companies. Since the mandatory adoption of K-IFRS in 2011, Korean listed firms with subsidiaries should prepare and disclose consolidated financial statements as the primary financial statements. Financial analysts also provide earnings forecasts for consolidation entities under K-IFRS. Prior to the introduction of K-IFRS, accounting regulations in Korea have adopted individual financial statements as the primary financial statements, financial information users including financial analysts and investors are familiar with individual financial statements. Therefore, financial information users have difficulties in understanding consolidated financial statements under K-IFRS. However, even though there are significant changes in the financial reporting system from individual to consolidated statements due to the adoption of K-IFRS, there is little evidence whether accounting information users fully understand consolidated financial statements. In this study, we focus on financial analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts and investigate two research questions. First, we examine whether financial analysts forecast consolidated earnings efficiently by analyzing analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of parent and subsidiary earnings. Specifically, we empirically test whether analysts reflect unbiased estimates of the persistence of parent and subsidiary earnings in forecasting consolidated earnings. Second, we focus on financial analysts’ supplementary separate earnings forecasts and investigate how supplementary separate earnings forecasts affect consolidated earnings forecasts efficiency. The sample consists of 2,408 forecasts-firm-year observations on Korean listed firms which have subsidiaries and forecasts of consolidated operating income for the period from 2011 to 2013. Based on Herrmann et al.(2007), parent earnings are measured by using operating income in parent’s separate income statement, and subsidiary earnings are measured by using the difference between consolidated operating income and parent’s separate operating income. To test the degree of forecast efficiency in the use of accounting information, we use the first consolidated earnings forecast issued after the announcement of prior year earnings within the individual analysts. We find the positive relation between the forecast error of consolidated earnings in the current year and consolidated and parent earnings in the prior year. This result indicates that financial analysts do not use a firm-provided consolidated earnings information efficiently and overestimate the persistence of consolidated and parent earnings in forecasting future consolidated earnings. We also find that financial analysts who issue both consolidated earnings forecasts for consolidation entity and separate earnings forecasts for parent company provide more efficient consolidated earnings forecasts than financial analysts who issue consolidated earnings forecasts only. If financial analysts issue both consolidated and separate earnings forecasts, information users can evaluate not only analysts’ ability to predict future performance of consolidation entity, but also analysts’ ability to predict the source of consolidated earnings. Therefore, these results imply that financial analysts are more likely to supplement consolidated earnings forecasts with separate earnings forecasts for parent company when they are better informed or have the superior predictive ability. This study contributes to the extant literature as follows. First, while significant changes occur in an accounting environment from individual to consolidated financial statements based disclosure system after the adoption of K-IFRS, there is little evidence whether financial information users fully understand consolidated financial statements. We provide empirical evidence that financial analysts do not correctly estimate the persistence of consolidated and parent earnings in forecasting consolidated earnings. The results that financial analysts as sophisticated users of financial information do not fully understand consolidated financial statements suggest the need for improving the quality of financial disclosure for consolidation entities. Second, we extend the literature on financial analysts’ supplementary forecasts by investigating their incentives to provide supplementary separate earnings forecasts on top of the consolidated earnings forecasts. Especially, considering the circumstances that investors have trouble in understanding financial information due to three different types financial statements under K-IFRS, our results might provide useful information to investors by demonstrating that financial analysts are more likely to issue supplementary separate earnings forecasts when they are better informed.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
financial analyst, consolidated earnings forecast, separate earnings forecast, analyst’ perception of the persistence of earnings
