2004년부터 중국 동부 연해지역에서 농민공 부족이 발생한 이후 중국이 루이스 전환점을 통과하였는지 여부에 대한 격렬한 논쟁이 발생하고 있다. 일부 논자들은 중국이 이미 루이스 전환점을 완전히 통과하였다고 주장하고 다른 논자들은 루이스 전환점 통과는 시기상조라는 정반대의 주장을 펼치고 있다. 이 논문에서는 다섯 가지 기준을 고안하여 중국의 루이스 전환점 통과 여부를 추정해 보고자 하였다. 사용된 기준은 임금 기준, 수량 기준, 한계생산성 기준, 구조 기준, 농업 생산 및 인구 전망 기준이다. 통계 자료들을 통해 추정해 본 결과, 중국은 아직 두번째 루이스 전환점에 도달하지 않았으며 첫번째 전환점을 아직 지나지 않았거나 첫번째와 두번째 전환점 사이에 있는 것으로 판단된다. 농민공 임금 상승은 최저임금제 등 정부 정책에 따른 제도임금의 외생적 상승에 기인한 것으로 판단되며, 농민공 부족은 정부의 농촌 지원 정책에 따라 도시로의 노동력 이동의 기회비용이 증가한 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 노동 이동을 촉진하기 위하여 호구제도와 농토 매매 금지 등 노동력 이동을 제약하는 제도적 장애들의 철폐와 더불어 농촌 교육 보급과 복지 제고 등을 통한 노동력 이동 촉진이 정책적 대안으로 제시된다. 아울러, 산업 업그레이드를 통한 노동집약산업의 지속 및 노동사용적 기술진보의 촉진이 요구된다.

Starting with the peasant laborer shortage and sharp wage rise in Eastern coastal regions in China, a fierce debate on whether or not the Chinese economy has passed the Lewis turning point is going on. Some writers suggest that China already passed the Lewis turning point, but some are opposed to that viewpoint. In this paper, the author created criteria for judgment including the wage criterion, the quantity criterion, marginal productivity criterion, structure criterion, agricultural output, productivity increase, and demographic prospect. Through statistical analyses based on the above-mentioned criteria, it was suggested that China definitely has yet not come to the second turning point and there is only weak empirical evidence that China has passed the first turning point. The wage rise can be attributed to the government’s policy to support agriculture and resultant exogenous rise in institutional wage, and the labor shortage can be attributed to the rise in opportunity costs of labor transfer to cities. The study implies that, to prompt the labor transfer, the government should abolish the institutional hurdles for labor transfer, including household registration system and ban on transfer of rural land. It is also suggested that the welfare should be promoted in the rural regions and more emphasis should be put on the labor intensive industry and labor-using technological progress.

Starting with the peasant laborer shortage and sharp wage rise in Eastern coastal regions in China, a fierce debate on whether or not the Chinese economy has passed the Lewis turning point is going on. Some writers suggest that China already passed the Lewis turning point, but some are opposed to that viewpoint. In this paper, the author created criteria for judgment including the wage criterion, the quantity criterion, marginal productivity criterion, structure criterion, agricultural output, productivity increase, and demographic prospect. Through statistical analyses based on the above-mentioned criteria, it was suggested that China definitely has yet not come to the second turning point and there is only weak empirical evidence that China has passed the first turning point. The wage rise can be attributed to the government’s policy to support agriculture and resultant exogenous rise in institutional wage, and the labor shortage can be attributed to the rise in opportunity costs of labor transfer to cities. The study implies that, to prompt the labor transfer, the government should abolish the institutional hurdles for labor transfer, including household registration system and ban on transfer of rural land. It is also suggested that the welfare should be promoted in the rural regions and more emphasis should be put on the labor intensive industry and labor-using technological progress.

Lewis Turning Point, Labor Shortage, Wage Rise