세입예측오차를 설명하는 가설들은 여유자원 확보설, 정치적 요인설, 경기 변동설, 그리고 제도적 요인설이 있다. 본 연구는 네 가지 가설을 검증하기 위해 1983년∼2011년의 광역자치단체와 기초자치단체의 지방세입 및 경상적세외수입 예측오차 자료를 개입시계열분석으로 조사했다. 연구결과에 따르면 자치단체들의 지방세입 및 경상적세외수입의 예측오차는 대부분 과소세입예측오차로서, 그 발생빈도를 고려하면 우연(chance)이 아닌 인위적 오차인 것으로 확인되어 여유자원 확보설이 지지되었다. 나머지 세 개의 가설들을 검증하기 위해 지방세입 및 경상적세외수입의 세입예측오차 자료를 개입시계열분석으로 분석한 결과, 정치적 요인설과 경기 변동설은 극히 일부만 확인되었다. 제도적 요인설은 지방세입의 경우 6개 자치단체들 중 광역시, 도, 시, 군에서 지지되었는데, 전반적인 경향은 지방자치제도 도입 이후 과소 지방세입 예측오차가 유의미하게 감소했다. 경상적세외수익의 제도적 요인설 분석결과는 6개 자치단체들 중 도, 시, 군, 자치구에서 지지되었는데, 지방자치제도 도입 이후 과소예측오차 경향이 크게 감소했다. 지방세입 및 경상적세외수익의 세입예측오차가 지방자치제도 도입 이후 감소한 원인은 자치단체들이 지방자치제도 도입 이후 증가된 공공서비스 수요를 충족시키기 위해 과소세입예측오차를 통한 여유자원 조성을 감소시키고, 그 감소분을 공공서비스 증가에 사용했기 때문인 것으로 판단된다.

For the purpose of explaining what contributed governmental forecasting errors, four hypotheses are developed such as slack resource hypothesis, political factor hypothesis, economic factor hypothesis, and institutional factor hypothesis. In this paper we explore these hypotheses through an empirical analysis using Korea metropolitan council government and primary local government data from 1983-2011. Statistical results suggest that revenue forecasting is usually underestimated, which supports the slack resource hypothesis. That is to say, underestimation of revenue forecasting is intentionally induced by local governments to create slack resources against future financial risk. In addition, we use interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the effects of political, economic, and institutional factors on forecasting errors. Empirical results partially support political and economic factor hypotheses for forecasting errors. Institutional hypothesis is strongly supported from the local-tax data and current non-tax revenue data derived from four local governments. Overall results show that underestimation practice of forecasting is significantly reduced after the adoption of local self-government rule. Local governments seem to increase governmental expenditures by abandoning efforts to create slack resources.

For the purpose of explaining what contributed governmental forecasting errors, four hypotheses are developed such as slack resource hypothesis, political factor hypothesis, economic factor hypothesis, and institutional factor hypothesis. In this paper we explore these hypotheses through an empirical analysis using Korea metropolitan council government and primary local government data from 1983-2011. Statistical results suggest that revenue forecasting is usually underestimated, which supports the slack resource hypothesis. That is to say, underestimation of revenue forecasting is intentionally induced by local governments to create slack resources against future financial risk. In addition, we use interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the effects of political, economic, and institutional factors on forecasting errors. Empirical results partially support political and economic factor hypotheses for forecasting errors. Institutional hypothesis is strongly supported from the local-tax data and current non-tax revenue data derived from four local governments. Overall results show that underestimation practice of forecasting is significantly reduced after the adoption of local self-government rule. Local governments seem to increase governmental expenditures by abandoning efforts to create slack resources.

Forecasting Errors, Revenue Forecasting, Interrupted Time Series Analysis