초록 열기/닫기 버튼
The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationships between major economic variables and tourism demand from Japanese tourists to Korea, using a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). The VECM included such variables as real per capita GDP, exchange rate, oil price, Japanese inbound tourists, and dummy variable of SARS using quarterly data from 1994 to 2007. The results of long-term equilibrium equation show that exchange rate and oil price were statistically significant where elasticity of exchange rate variable(0.58) was higher than that of oil price(0.14). The results of impulse response function estimated by VECM and forecast error variance decomposition were found similar to the results of long-term equilibrium equation. That is, exchange rate appeared to have more sensitive impact on responses of tourism demand than real per capita GDP. Also, the impact of oil price led to small response, and the response gradually became negative effect. Considering that Japanese tourists were relatively sensitive to change in exchange rate and oil price, tourism policy-makers should take these variable into account when they implement price policy in airlines and hotel rooms.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Tourism Demand, Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model: VECM
