초록 열기/닫기 버튼
본 연구는 구조적 관점에서 국내 금융시스템과 은행 자산구조 현황을 점검하고 금융시스템 내부분적인 실패가 발생하는 경우 자체보정 메커니즘이 원활하게 작동할 수 있는 지를 이론 및실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 국내 금융구조는 은행중심구조의 특성을 유지하는 가운데은행시장이 고객별․상품별 시장분할 구조로부터 통합된 구조로 변모된 것으로 파악되었다. 특히 은행들의 자산운용이 대출 중심으로 편중되고 각 은행들의 대출구성이 동조화된 것으로확인되었다. 이와 함께 자본-은행시장, 은행-비은행, 은행 간 상호 보완․대체기능의 원활한 작동을기대하기 어려운 구조로 평가되었다. Monte carlo simulation을 통한 위험-순익비율 분포 변화및 금융안정화지수(FSI)와 동조화지수 간의 다변수 회귀모형 분석에서는 시스템리스크의 가능성이과거보다 커진 것으로 나타났다. 이는 금융시스템 내 부분적인 실패가 발생할 경우 시장 자체적인복원력이 미약하여 시스템리스크로 확산될 우려가 있으며, 또한 위기발생시 완충역할을 담당할금융기관이나 시장이 취약하여 시스템을 복원하기 위한 공적자금 투입 및 중앙은행의 유동성공급규모가 매우 커야 한다는 것을 시사한다. 이에 비추어 은행들은 각각 경쟁력이 우월한 부문에독자적 업무영역을 구축하여 차별성을 확보하는 것이 긴요하다고 판단되며, 정책적으로는금융권간, 금융기관 간 상호 보완․대체기능이 원활하게 작동할 수 있도록 다원적․중층적인금융시장구조 구축방안을 강구하는 것이 필요해 보인다.
It is a common view that having a diversity of multi-sided financial institutions promotes a resilient financial system, because the existence of different risk profiles reduces the likelihood of systemic crisis. In this regards, this paper reviews the current financial system of Korea, and examines whether the function of substitution or complementarity among financial intermediaries works in the case of a partial failure in the banking sector from a broader structural point of view. We find distinctive features of the Korean banking sector are the substantial increase in market share of the largest banks, the rise in the loan-to-deposit ratio as a result of an over-emphasis on lending and asset similarity among commercial banks. Especially, the asset structure of the largest five banks has become more similar to each other by playing the same financial intermediation role. In addition, this paper assesses that the Korean capital markets and non-financial institutions are unable to substitute in any case of loss of bank’s financial intermediation function, as they have shown co-movements in lending to firms and households since the early 2000s. Futhermore, because of their similarities in asset distribution, we cannot expect a large commercial bank within an integrated banking market to back up other banks if one of the large banks undergoes a shock. Given the current structure of the domestic financial system, we study empirically how the similarities in recent asset structures in the banking sector affect the likelihood of system risk. For this purpose, we adopt Monte Carlo Simulation and formulate a multiple regression analysis model which includes a homogeneity index variable, an index of banks’ asset composition similarity. The results show that the recent asset structure of the Korean banking industry is more likely to be exposed to system risk than those in the past, suggesting the homogeneity in asset compositions of the largest banks to be an important factor causing an increased likelihood of system risk. Also, our analysis implies that the official financial supports by government and central bank should be implemented in large scale during the crisis to restore the financial stability. We therefore come to a conclusion that each bank needs to adopt a business strategy for securing its own dominant field from a going concern perspective. Policymakers need to achieve significant progress in diversifying the banking sector, and should consider some policy steps for ensuring the existence of multiple alternative financial intermediaries to meet financial instability.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Financial Structure, Asset Distribution of Banking Sector, System Risk
