초록 열기/닫기 버튼
Equilibrium exchange rate is one of the core issues in exchange rate theory. Equilibrium exchange rate is the objective criterion to judge whether exchange rate is misalignment and whether policy is needs to adjust. With deepening of RMB exchange rate mechanism in the degree of marketization and expansion of RMB exchange rate fluctuation range,research on RMB equilibrium exchange rate and its policy implications seems more and more important. Whether or not the RMB exchange rate exist misalignment and the extent of the misalignment? What economic effect can RMB exchange rate misalignment bring? How to macroeconomic policy tools to solve these disequilibrium and conflict? To keep Chinese macro economy smooth running these problems are must to be solved, and these problems are also this study want to solve. Based on reviews of recent development of exchange rate theories, the author choose effective exchange rate as a major evaluation object. The author use purchasing power parity as a long-run equilibrium exchange rate benchmark to evaluate the stationarity of RMB real exchange rate. The conclusion is divided into empirical research conclusions and policy implication. The empirical results purchasing power parity show: since RMB exchange rate mechanism reform, in addition to the nominal exchange rate of RMB against dollar unexpectedly get support, RMB real exchange rate stationarity and purchasing power parity in China cannot get any empirical supports. The PPP hypothesis in many empirical tests (including test of this paper) cannot achieve satisfactory results, so we must give up PPP hypothesis in the process of system and the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate reform. But we can only regard it as an idealized frame of reference.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Purchase Power Parity, RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate,Econometric Analysis
