민주화 이후 투표 참여의 지속적인 감소 문제는 한국의 민주주의 공고화 문제와 관련하여 오늘날 큰 화두로 제기되고 있다. 특히 전국적인 차원에서 실시되는 선거와 비교하여 그 정치적 비중이 상대적으로 적은 재·보궐선거의 낮은 투표율은 정치적 대표성 문제와 관련하여 큰 문제로 지적되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 1987년 민주화 이후 실시된 재·보궐선거를 대상으로 투표율에 영향을 미친 요인들 을 경험적으로 분석하고 있다. 구체적으로 본 연구는 재·보궐선거의 일반적인 특성들을 고려하여 투표율에 영향을 미치는 거시적인 요인들을 파악하고, 이것이 대의민주주의 대표성 문제와 관련하여 어떠한 의미를 갖는지 고찰하고 있다. 연구 결과, 이전 총선 투표율, 재·보궐선거 경쟁도, 지역주의가 통계적으로 유의미한 수준에서 재·보궐선거의 투표율에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 대통령 국정운영 지지율이 높은 시점 또는 낮은 시점에서 재·보궐선거가 실시될 경우 투표율이 상대적으로 높은 경향을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 한국에서 재·보궐선거는 지역선거임에도 불구하고 선거시점 중앙정치의 쟁점들이 크게 부각되는 상황 속에서 대통령의 국정운영에 대한 평가라는 정치적 의미가 반영된 결과라고 볼 수 있다.

The low turnouts of the elections in Korea since democratization have been regarded as a serious obstacle for democratic consolidation. Especially, the very low turnouts recorded below 30 percent of the by(re)-elections in Korea have given rise to the serious anxiety with regard to political representation. Nevertheless, it has not studied or analyzed at all what factors influence the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea. In this vein, this study is to analyze the determinant factors affecting the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. To be more specific, the statistical model of this study, considering the characteristics of by(re)-elections, includes several variables like the turnouts of the previous general elections, presidential approval ratings, regionalism, and electoral closeness to explain the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. Based on the statistical results of the model, the study shows that the turnouts of the previous general elections, regionalism, and electoral closeness play an important roles in the turnout of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. In addition, the results suggest that the general public mood for the political performance of president will affect the turnouts and outcomes of the by(re)-elections in Korea.

The low turnouts of the elections in Korea since democratization have been regarded as a serious obstacle for democratic consolidation. Especially, the very low turnouts recorded below 30 percent of the by(re)-elections in Korea have given rise to the serious anxiety with regard to political representation. Nevertheless, it has not studied or analyzed at all what factors influence the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea. In this vein, this study is to analyze the determinant factors affecting the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. To be more specific, the statistical model of this study, considering the characteristics of by(re)-elections, includes several variables like the turnouts of the previous general elections, presidential approval ratings, regionalism, and electoral closeness to explain the turnouts of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. Based on the statistical results of the model, the study shows that the turnouts of the previous general elections, regionalism, and electoral closeness play an important roles in the turnout of the by(re)-elections in Korea since democratization. In addition, the results suggest that the general public mood for the political performance of president will affect the turnouts and outcomes of the by(re)-elections in Korea.

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Korea, By(Re)-Elections, Turnout, Presidential Approval Ratings, Regionalism, ElectoralCloseness